Why winning Tripura Assembly elections won't be easy for BJP

At a time when the ruling party at the Centre has been continuously endeavouring to somehow (through non-electoral means) regain and wrest States, which it had lost electorally last time, the North Eastern state of Tripura, which the Saffron Brigade had won for the first time in 2018, may cause them some headache, for sure, for more reasons than one. The State legislative Assembly polls in Tripura are due in early 2023.

On one hand, the growing rift within the State unit of the BJP and on the other, the possibility of Congress and CPIM fighting the polls forming an alliance (in line with what the two parties did in West Bengal, albeit unsuccessfully) both would pose some threat to the BJP. And to add to the worries of the ruling party, 'Maharaja' of Tripura-Pradyut Bikram Manikya, the chief of Tipra Motha, who is fiercely fighting for the rights of the indigenous people, and demanding a separate Tipraland, is likely to significantly eat into the sizeable tribal vote bank in the State.

Problems for the Tripura BJP began with the sudden replacement of its former Chief Minister Biplab Deb with Manik Saha, few months ago. The move did not go down well among the State unit of the party. This has led to certain confusion and now a number of top leaders including some other CM aspirants are not happy with the new one. This will lead to disruption and confusion. The instability is not good for the BJP and Tripura. There is a clear indication that something was wrong in the past four years. Political observers are of the view that if the Saffron mandarins at the party headquarters do not deliver what they promised to Deb (either State party president's post or a ministry at the Centre through a Rajya Sabha berth) while removing him suddenly, that might bring in further troubles for the party before the polls.

The Congress heavyweight- Sudip Roy Burman, who has recently won the Agartala bypolls, has understandably lapped up the situation and is trying to strengthen Congress by all means including that of teaming up with the CPIM and breaking the State unit of the Trinamul Congress.

Mind you that Tipra Motha, on its parts, has already announced its plans to fight the 20 seats reserved for tribal, unless some party promises 'Tipraland in writing,' and there are 15 other seats where the tribal population is more than 35 per cent. With this new equation of SC and Cha Bagan workers, Maharaja's party's vote share goes up to nearly 50 per cent. They will certainly be a significant player in almost 40 of the 60 seats. The Maharaja has made it clear that the demand for Tipraland is to safeguard the rights of indigenous people without taking away the rights of the prosecuted Hindus who have come from East Pakistan. At times, there is a confusion. Just because they are demanding Tipraland as per constitutional rights, does not mean that they want to take away the rights of people who have sought refuge in India, he pointed out.

Trinamul Congress, which fared badly during the recently concluded bypolls, is not sitting idle either. They are re-strategising and restructuring committees from the booth up to State level to strengthen the party. Mo-Shah's party needs to act fast. Otherwise time may be running out of their hands.